In partnership with
MediaMorph Edition 101 - by HANA News
My prediction for the prediction markets
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here
The written-by-a-human bit
In case you are wondering about the likely outcome of the Elon Musk vs Sam Altman court case, Polymarket currently has an Elon win on 39% - newsworthy in itself.
Prediction markets are becoming the new newsroom plaything: not quite polling, not quite punditry, not exactly scientific, but extremely good at producing quotable predictions.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi let users trade on future outcomes, turning the likelihood of an election result, a court ruling, a CEO exit, or a geopolitical twist into a live percentage. (By a quirk of the Trump administration, Kalshi falls under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, which deems it a futures market rather than a sports betting market - to be challenged).
That percentage is catnip for media. It gives editors a constantly updating “hive mind” number to build stories around: not what happened, but what the crowd thinks will happen next. Kalshi has struck deals with outlets including CNN, CNBC, Fox News and the Associated Press, while Polymarket has announced partnerships with Dow Jones and Substack.
This is useful because journalism has long struggled with predictions. Commentators forecast, pollsters model, analysts hedge, pundits prevaricate. But prediction markets turn speculation into a visible price. They give newsrooms a new content format: the odds as news in their own right.
But this is the wild west. Prediction markets look like collective intelligence, but they are not neutral truth machines. They can be thinly traded, gamed, distorted by insiders, or dominated by sophisticated traders (a US soldier is currently on trial for betting $33,000 on Polymarket on January 2nd that Maduro would soon be out of office and that US forces would soon enter Venezuela - a security breach if nothing else).
My advice for editors is “proceed with caution”. These markets should be treated as entertainment and contextualised, not treated as gospel. And if you want to be puritanical, we have to consider the externalities from promoting gambling platforms to young men (and it is mostly young men) with a predilection to gambling addiction.
Related, back in 2015, I was asked to run a pilot project with AI startup, Yewno. We ran Yewno’s AI inference and knowledge graphs on 6 months of Factiva sample data (23,000 sources) and produced remarkably confident predictions on big-cap stock movements, supply chains, and geopolitical events. It was ahead of its time.
Fast forward 11 years, and start-ups like AppliedXL are finding signals in public data, regulatory filings, trial registries, press releases and other live information streams to surface early signals before they become conventional news. AppliedXL describes its model as reading traces in the public record before events become news, and it has worked with Bloomberg on real-time clinical data and with the Associated Press on AI-powered local news tips.
What was once the domain of sophisticated analysts at hedge funds is now within reach of newsrooms. For specialist media companies, these insights could be extremely valuable. But they come with caveats - they must have stipulated confidence levels and treat the inference as a guide, not prophecy.
As any good hedge fund will tell you, the inference is only valuable for alpha if they have a head start. It’s an interesting philosophical question - what happens when the models become so good that we all have the superpower to see around corners? It may be a short window for selling proprietary predictions.
Mark Riley, CEO Mathison AI
AI and Journalism
This week’s best articles, as chosen by HANA and our editors
Abuse of women journalists made ‘easier and more damaging’ by AI UN News - April 30, 2026 A UN Women report highlights the growing sophistication of online violence against women, exacerbated by AI, revealing alarming statistics such as 12% of women human rights defenders experiencing non-consensual intimate image sharing and significant self-censorship among women journalists. With fewer than 40% of countries having protective laws against cyber harassment, the report underscores an urgent need for systemic changes to combat this escalating crisis. |
Fighting the machine. Cjr - U.S. journalists are advocating for contracts that clearly define the role of artificial intelligence in their work, aiming to protect their jobs and uphold journalistic integrity. With concerns about AI's influence on media, they demand transparency and a say in how technology is integrated into newsrooms, emphasizing, “We don't want it to be done in our name, literally.” |
How QCity Metro uses AI in its journalism QCity Metro - May 3, 2026 QCity Metro is committed to serving Charlotte's Black community with reliable journalism, enhancing their efforts through responsible AI use for tasks like editing and fact-checking while ensuring human oversight. This approach allows journalists to focus on impactful storytelling that reflects the vibrant spirit of the community. |
Reporters at McClatchy Withhold Bylines in Dispute Over A.I. Content Nytimes - McClatchy is undergoing a digital transformation to adapt to the changing media landscape, focusing on enhancing its online presence and expanding subscription models. By investing in digital journalism and exploring partnerships, the newspaper chain aims to engage a broader audience and ensure financial stability in a competitive market. |
“Like nailing Jell-O to a wall”: Why unions are struggling to protect journalists’ rights in the age of AI As AI technology increasingly infiltrates journalism, unions worldwide are pushing back against potential job displacement and ethical concerns, advocating for human oversight and transparency in AI deployment. Amid ongoing negotiations and protests, journalists emphasize the need for their voices in shaping the future of their craft while safeguarding the integrity of news reporting. |
An oligarch’s dystopian scheme to discredit journalism with AI Popular - April 30, 2026 Objection AI, a startup backed by Peter Thiel, has launched an "AI jury" system designed to assess media claims and individual reporters' trustworthiness, offering users the chance to submit complaints for a fee of $2,000. With ambitions to become a global AI arbitration court, the company aims to streamline dispute resolution across various sectors, promising efficiency and impartiality in addressing issues from journalism to commercial conflicts. |
Journalism classes lack a consistent approach to AI use across institutions Phys - Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing journalism by streamlining workflows and enhancing productivity through tools that assist with writing, editing, and research. While AI offers opportunities for personalized news delivery and deeper insights, it also poses ethical challenges, including concerns over misinformation and job security for human journalists. |
Why communicators need to think like journalists when using AI Ragan - AI enhances productivity and decision-making by processing data and identifying patterns, but human oversight is essential for context, empathy, and moral judgment. The collaboration between AI and humans leads to more informed outcomes, ensuring technology complements rather than replaces human skills. |
Why The Guardian’s first reader-facing AI product isn’t a chatbot Digiday - March 31, 2026 At the Digiday Publishing Summit, Chris Moran from The Guardian highlighted the publication's cautious use of AI, particularly through its new tool, Storylines, which creates narrative-driven groupings of articles based on headlines to ensure editorial control and prevent misinformation. Currently in limited testing on 10 tag pages, the tool is supported by a team of senior editors who provide feedback, and it includes a fail-safe mechanism for deactivation if needed. |
News UK turns The Times’ first-party data into synthetic audiences for advertisers Digiday - April 27, 2026 The Times and Sunday Times have successfully leveraged the Electric Twin platform to enhance their subscription strategy, leading to a 7% increase in digital subscribers. With innovative features like consolidated parenting coverage and "bonus accounts" for premium subscribers, they're setting a new standard in audience engagement while addressing challenges in the evolving media landscape. |
The Guardian's U.S. push The Rebooting - April 28, 2026 At the Possible event, a collaborative dinner was hosted by The Rebooting with partners including Marvelous.works and Launch Potato, while video podcasts were recorded at Nobu in partnership with EX.CO. In media news, The Center Square has successfully transitioned to in-house newsletter management, significantly boosting engagement, while The Guardian continues to innovate with a voluntary donation model, emphasizing independence and global perspectives in journalism. |
I built an agent to do my job. Then it hung up on my boss. Business Insider - May 1, 2026 In a bold experiment, a reporter created an AI version of herself to explore the impact of artificial intelligence in journalism, revealing mixed industry reactions and highlighting limitations in AI's conversational abilities. While AI tools like chatbots can streamline content creation, they struggle to capture the nuance and depth of human interactions, prompting important discussions about their role in the future of journalism. |
Stop making AI decisions in the dark. Understand AI usage.
Leadership is asking: are we getting value from AI? Which tools are worth the spend? Where are we exposed? Right now, most teams have no idea.
Harmonic Security Usage Explorer changes that. It automatically classifies every AI interaction across your organization into the use cases driving real work, specific to your business. Not generic categories. Not raw prompts. Actual patterns to understand: how your teams are using AI, how much time they spend in AI, the cost, and where risk lives.
CIOs get the data to rationalize spend and cut wasted licenses. CISOs get risk in context. AI committees get proof of impact.
Early access is now open to a limited number of organizations. Request your spot.
AI and Academic Publishing
This week’s best articles, as chosen by HANA and our editors
AI Slop Is Flooding Academic Journals. A Top Journal Measured It Forbes - A recent study reveals a 42% surge in academic submissions due to AI tools, yet warns that this increase may come at the expense of writing quality. The findings call for a careful balance between the productivity benefits of AI and the potential risks to academic rigor and clarity. |
StrikePlagiarism at Frankfurter Buchmesse 2025 — advancing trust and transparency in scholarly publishing THE Campus Learn, Share, Connect - April 29, 2026 The rise of generative AI poses significant challenges for scholarly communication, prompting the need for reliable systems like StrikePlagiarism.com to ensure authorship integrity and quality in publishing. As digital technologies reshape the academic landscape, balancing traditional and open-access models remains crucial for fostering collaboration and maintaining editorial standards. |
JMIR news: Is AI creating a monoculture in scientific knowledge? In "Immortal AI, Mortal Life: Long-Term Perspectives on AI and Human Knowledge," Dr. Hyunjin Shim warns that the rapid evolution of AI could lead to a homogenization of understanding, jeopardizing scientific creativity while emphasizing the need for human oversight in decision-making. Published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, this article highlights the critical balance between advancing technology and upholding human values. |
Let Faculty Lead on AI — Minding The Campus Minding The Campus - May 1, 2026 As AI becomes an integral part of students' lives, a sustainable educational policy must prioritize ethical use, critical thinking, and faculty autonomy, allowing educators to shape AI integration in ways that enhance student learning. Emphasizing collaboration and adaptability, this approach seeks to balance the evolving role of technology with the core values of academic freedom and original thought. |
Illicit Use of AI by Philosophers Refereeing for Journals Daily Nous - news for & about the philosophy profession - April 29, 2026 A recent incident highlights ethical concerns in academic peer review, as a philosophy PhD student's paper received mixed feedback, with suspicions that a positive review was AI-generated. This situation underscores the importance of adhering to journal policies prohibiting the use of AI tools in evaluations, emphasizing that reviewers should maintain the integrity of the process by conducting reviews themselves. |
AI is flooding peer review, and editors say it’s making science harder to judge The Brighter Side of News - May 4, 2026 A recent analysis of submissions to Organization Science reveals a 42% surge post-ChatGPT, but with a decline in quality characterized by jargon-heavy writing and lower readability. The study highlights concerns about AI's impact on academic standards, suggesting that while it may ease the writing process, it risks undermining critical thinking essential for impactful research. |
This newsletter was partly curated and summarised by AI agents, who can make mistakes. Check all important information. For any issues or inaccuracies, please notify us here
View our AI Ethics Policy
